The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, the Our Ukraine Bloc and the Socialist Party of Ukraine can form a majority in parliament, if they unite into an “orange coalition.”
This according to three exit polls: the National exit poll, TOV “FOM-Ukrayina,” and the All-Ukrainian Sociological Service.
As analysis shows, if the election results follow the results of the National exit poll, the Party of the Regions will hold 183 seats, BYuT – 125, Our Ukraine – 74, the SPU – 30, and the Communist Party of Ukraine and the Vitrenko Bloc will each have 19, which gives an “orange coalition” 229 votes, three above a simple majority of 226.
If the results follow the exit poll data collected by “FOM-Ukrayina,” then the Party of the Regions will have 172 seats, BYuT – 126, Our Ukraine – 93, the SPU – 38, and the CPU – 21. In this result an “orange coalition” will have 257 votes.
Finally, if the results fall in line with the results of the All-Ukrainian Sociological Service exit poll, the Party of the Regions will have 149 seats, BYuT – 117, Our Ukraine – 84, the SPU – 30, the People’s Bloc of Lytvyn – 28, the CPU – 25, and the Vitrenko Bloc – 17, which gives the orange bloc 231 votes.
The so-called “winner’s premium,” which is made up of those votes that went for parties that did not reach the 3% minimum, or those votes against everyone will be: according to the National exit poll – 18.2%, “FOM-Ukrayina” – 17.7%, All-Ukrainian Sociological Service – 16.8%.
According to the results, a mathematical two-party majority could be established by: the Party of the Regions plus BYuT, or the Party of the Regions plus Our Ukraine.
In addition, if the National exit poll results hold up, a Regions-BYuT coalition would have a constitutional majority of 308 votes, while according to “FOM-Ukrayina” they would be close with 298 votes.
At the same time, BYuT and Our Ukraine both declared that it was more desirable for them to recreate the “orange coalition.”
According to two exit polls, the formation of a constitutional majority of 301 would be impossible without the Party of the Regions. The results of the All-Ukrainian Sociological Service has the Party of the Regions gaining 149 out of 450 seats.
Ukrayinska Pravda
