Original article by Viktor Chivokunya, UP
Our Ukraine has repeatedly refuted information on the negotiations with Party of Regions (PRU). Most probably, they will do it once again when signing agreement that will allow Our Ukraine members to work in Yanukovych’s government.
Political situation in Ukraine is still balancing between dissolution of the parliament and singing an agreement with anti-crisis coalition.
The option of getting oppositional status for a pro-presidential party has become unattractive.
Last week President Yushchenko made the right choice having chosen a new negotiating partner. Now, instead of Viktor Yanukovych, Rynat Akhmetov will reason with Yushchenko.
Akhmetov was there on Friday, he came to the president on Monday. They say, he spent almost half a day with the president. Ukrainian billionaire spoiled family vocation – his beloved ones have been waiting for him in Monte Carlo for almost two months, but he has to breathe a hot capital smog instead of enjoying Cote d'-Azur.
Akhmetov’s meetings with the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine show that he is solving the problem of his private legitimacy in the West as well as his position in Forbes.
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This makes Akhmetovs a more flexible negotiating partner than Yanukovych.
Something happens between Our Ukraine Block (NU) and PRU twice a day. They seclude in the well-conditioned rooms.
Since it is forbidden to call such meetings ‘negotiations’ we can say they ‘share viewpoints’.
The meeting is attended by Petro Poroshenko (claims the First Vice-Minister in Yanukovych’s government), Roman Zvarych (claims the Minister of Justice) and Oleksandr Tretyakov (claims the Head of President’s Secretariat).
Acting National Security and Defense Council Secretary Volodymyr Horbulin actively joined the negotiation process. Horbulin seems to go on working as an acting NSDC Secretary forever, since his age will not allow him to be fully and properly appointed.
The only subject of negotiations is participation of Our Ukraine in the coalition with PRU.
Yushchenko’s most desired option is to change Yanukovych’s nomination for a more neutral personality. Besides, President’s Secretariat received letters and appeals from central region communities to bring in the nomination of Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
But Yanukovych does not accept any variants of retreat. It is the matter of principle for him and Akhmetov: “We’ve got the first place at the elections, the premier is ours.” That’s their logic: “You had to agree when we offered you premier’s office and half of the government in exchange for Yanukovych’s speakership. But Our Ukraine chose orange coalition.”
Yanukovych’s stability in this matter seemed to make Yushchenko and Our Ukraine give up.
There is another condition for Our Ukraine to join the coalition – to alter Coalition Agreement even with the Communists if they consent to basic principles. Yushchenko’s only goal is to keep influence in the country.
It is all about spheres of influence for Yushchenko: security services, coalition regulations and action plan.
According to some sources, Yanukovych even agreed to sign the government letter to Brussels stating Ukraine’s readiness to join Membership Action Plan.
Other sources claim Borys Tarasyuk accepts Yanukovych’s nomination if “the vector of foreign remains unchanged.”
The third condition set by Our Ukraine is the offices.
“What an appetite! We will go on a diet!” said PRU MP about negotiations with Our Ukraine.
There is a new word in political lexicon – ‘compensator’.
Our Ukraine wants to compensate the offices of premier and speaker (taken by anti-crisis coalition) with three minister’s portfolios (the First Vice-Premier, Interior Minister and Minister of Justice).
The rest of portfolios will be proportionally divided, as a result of which Our Ukraine gets another 5-6 minister’s portfolios.
The thing is that some president’s ‘dear friends’ will not be pleased with the Ministry of Culture or Ministry of Family, Youth and Sport. They want an economic block which is logically to be controlled by Yanukovych.
Early election is unwanted scenario for all the players: expenses for Akhmetov, all-national tour for Yanukovych and extremely high risk for Yushchenko.
President’s analytics admit low ratings of their chief. Probably they hope for unification of the ‘orange’ electorate and making up a ‘black-and-white picture’: either Maidan (Yushchenko-Tymoshenko) or Anti-Maidan (Yanukovych).
Under such conditions they forecast the same result as received at the presidential elections 2004: 52% against 44% in favor for Yushchenko.
“Our slogan will be: “Save Ukrainian sovereignty!” revealed official from Yushchenko’s staff. Yanukovych’s dependence from Moscow will become the anti-thesis.
At the same time PRU has its own of Gallup Poll data: last week their rating reached 42% which will get them 226 votes in the parliament in case of the ‘orange’ failure.
In such case Yushchenko is helpless – the parliament elected at early election can not be dissolved for a period of a year.
Early election is not Yushchenko’s bluff, his staff claims. Moreover, his recent meeting with Yanukovych, who proved to be absolutely uncomplying, made dissolution of the parliament look even more real.
Recently Yushchenko got expert legal analysis from the Institute for State and Law which also serves for the Constitutional Court of Ukraine.
Lawyers backed Yushchenko’s logic which aroused Moroz’s indignation. The Law Institute of the Verkhovna Rada came up with a completely different decision. Obviously no other legal establishment dared to do the job within such time limits.
Now Moroz is in a very difficult situation when he can’t have any influence on his own future career. No one negotiates with him.
Moroz will not play on his own since a capitalist will never understand a socialist. The only thing Moroz can do is to vote for Yanukovych without Yushchenko’s submission. Such variant is absolutely unacceptable for Akhmetov who needs to take care of his foreign business partners and the country’s investment image. It is easier for him to live through another election. Besides, American consultants and spin doctors are sure to back him in this matter.
Yushchenko might be interested in early elections to get his speaker in the parliament. Even if Yanukovych has an overall majority, it is the president who brings in premier’s nomination for parliament’s approval. And Yushchenko sets only one condition for that – he nominates HIS Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada.
Friday afternoon was determined the best time to dissolve the parliament. It does not matter what Friday, this one or next. The thing is that there will be a 3-day break in the work of the Verkhovna Rada. Two days off and miserable vacations are the main demoralizing factors for a Ukrainian MP.
