Translated by Eugene Ivantsov
Appointment of the obstetrician-gynecologist Rayisa Bohatyryova the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council could seem absurd. But in the current situation this appointment is quite natural taking into account that the Transport Ministry is now headed by Yosyp Vinsky who was educated at the agricultural college and Higher Party School at the Communist Party of USSR.
Mrs. Bohatyryova’s dissatisfaction with Viktor Yanukovych’s behavior was obvious long ago. In fact, she received no benefits from Mr. Yanukovych when he was in charge of the country.
Mrs. Bohatyryova attempted to become the Vice Speaker but her faction did not even nominate her. Candidature of the Minister of Health Care in the previous government was not agreed with her. Mrs. Bohatyryova’s son never headed Kyiv branch of the Party of Regions. It was not a high price to buy her loyalty.
Without being noticed Mrs. Bohatyryova started playing her own political game.
She established close relations with Arfush brothers who helped her find contacts in France.
Groups of analysts wrote long articles for Mrs. Bohatyryova. Her new look has become the demonstration of the latest achievements in medicine.
Very few people know that Rayisa Bohatyryova visited the US in summer to meet with the Deputy Secretary of State, make a speech in Woodrow Wilson Institute and have lunch with businessmen.
According to some information, she met with President Yushchenko before the visit to agree the key messages of her speeches in the US.
Few people guessed that Mrs. Bohatyryova was pursuing her own policy. But many people in the Party of Regions were aware of her dissatisfaction with the role which Viktor Yanukovych assigned to her.
In the morning on December 24, Rayisa Bohatyryova was sitting in the Party of Regions headquarters where Mr. Yanukovych was giving his first press conference as the PM of a shadow government.
His lame answers, traditional poor reading and inadequate grimaces only increased irritation and dissatisfaction of the party with such a poor leader.
In the afternoon the President issued a decree which was shocking for most of the Party of Regions leaders.
In fact, appointment of Rayisa Bohatyryova the National Security and Defense Secretary makes her an alternative to Yanukovych for the entire opposition.
Mrs. Bohatyryova is a member of Rynat Akhmetov’s team. As known, Mr. Akhmetov’s interests do not always coincide with Yanukovych’s plans.
Rayisa Bohatyryova has a common reception office with Borys Kolesnikov. In fact, this trifle means a lot.
It means that Kolesnikov and Bohatyryova have no secrets and trust one another.
This tandem in the Party of Regions had to decrease influence of Viktor Yanukovych on the party and develop a modern political force designed by the US spin doctor Paul Manafort.
Mr. Yanukovych’s nervous reaction proves that he looses power. “We cannot chair any government institutions that implement programs conflicting with our vision of the situation. It is a matter of principle for us,” he said.
As such, Viktor Yanukovych said that the President issued his decree without Mrs. Bohatyryova’s consent.
But the Party of Regions lawmakers who are loyal to Rynat Akhmetov were enthusiastic about Mrs. Bohatyryova’s new job.
“I was pleased to learn this news. Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council is an apolitical post in authority,” said one of the Party of Regions MPs who had waved good-bye to Yanukovych long ago.
If Mr. Akhmetov really consented to the early parliamentary election in exchange for the broad coalition, then appointment of Rayisa Bohatyryova should somewhat compensate failure to fulfill the president’s promises.
Particularly, Mrs. Bohatyryova can become an effective instrument protecting Mr. Akhmetov’s business. 29% of DniproEnergo is worth of the position of the National Security and Defense Secretary.
There is enough evidence that Mrs. Tymoshenko did not forget about her promise to bring back this enterprise to the state ownership. The BYuT lawyers are working on it while the party is collecting signatures with the demand to deprive the Donetsk billionaire of his share in this state enterprise.
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Signing the decree on Mrs. Bohatyryova President Yushchenko was convinced that it is a no-lose step. The only thing that could suffer from such a decision is the president’s rating of popularity which keeps vanishing.
Firstly, Mr. President has made a decision which will sow discord in the Party of Regions. Even if Mrs. Bohatyryova refuses to occupy this office (in fact she did not) this entire story will not bring unity to the Party of Regions which is living through a hard time.
Mrs. Bohatyryova’s position should create an alternative decision-making center in the Party of Regions and decrease Yanukovych’s influence.
MPs in the Party of Regions will never refuse to solve their problems even in the opposition status. They will not come with their problems to the head of a shadow government with no authority. They will come to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council who has an office in the President’s Secretariat and powers to influence the political process.
Awarding Borys Kolesnikov with an order and appointment of Rayisa Bohatyryova are two parts of the same strategy. They both participated in the ill-famed congress in Severodonetsk where Mrs. Bohatyryova urged to hold a referendum on autonomy of Donbas and Mr. Kolesnikov proposed to create a separate state.
Bohatyryova and Kolesnikov have to become an alternative authority in the Party of Regions, thus decreasing Yanukovych’s influence before the presidential election.
It does not mean that Akhmetov and Kolesnikov will refuse to nominate Yanukovych. They have a different goal of making Viktor Yanukovych 100% dependant.
Secondly, the President’s Secretariat expects Mrs. Bohatyryova to become the ‘key’ from the Eastern Ukraine for Viktor Yushchenko at the presidential election-2010.
There is no doubt in Bohatyryova’s loyalty to Mr. Yushchenko. She will have no other choice. The decisions of the National Security and Defense Council are adopted by 2/3 votes. When governors became members of the Council it cannot possibly adopt any decisions unsuitable for the President, even if Serhiy Kivalov chairs this organization.
Thirdly, appointment of Mrs. Bohatyryova should cool down the Party of Regions. Mr. Yushchenko showed them a new mediator in the dialogue Yushchenko-Donbas elite.
In exchange, he asks for support of the Party of Regions. They can either support Yushchenko when he lacks votes or help him put Tymoshenko in her place showing that the President’s Secretariat is supported by a part of the Party of Regions.
Fourthly, this appointment is a warning for Mrs. Tymoshenko. The President’s Secretariat hints that the broad coalition can be still formed.
Moreover, the broad coalition is real. Integration of Mrs. Bohatyryova into the presidential team should influence the most radical NU-NS members. This should hold Mrs. Tymoshenko back from any decisions uncoordinated with the President’s Secretariat if she really wants to keep her office.
Fifthly, Yulia Tymoshenko’s ambiguous promises as the opposition leader and the PM have been restricted.
Mrs. Tymoshenko has never had normal relations with the Secretaries of the National Security and Defense Council. When she was the Vice PM for Energy Issues Evhen Marchuk pressured her instructed by President Kuchma.
When Petro Poroshenko became the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council their relations with Tymoshenko turned into a textbook illustration of the conflict in authority.
Now, when Rayisa Bohatyryova is the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, the cold war of 2005 will seem a children’s game for Yulia Tymoshenko because she is opposed now not to Poroshenko but the almighty Rynat Akhmetov.
When Mr. Yushchenko nominated Yuriy Yekhanurov for the position of the Defense Minister it looked like the latter will be the main counter-balance to Mrs. Tymoshenko in the new government. It turned out Mr. Yushchenko chose another position which should be called now Woman Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council.
