Original article in Ukrainian by Albina Trubenkova, for UP
Translated by Eugene Ivantsov
Excessive attention of mass media to appointment of Rayisa Bohatyryova to the post of the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) distracted people from more important events both in the authority and the opposition.
These events have interlaced and created several very interesting paradoxes. The President appointed the member of the largest opposition party the NSDC Secretary. As such, this appointment was surprising both for the coalition and the opposition.
Analysts claim that Rayisa Bohatyryova will become a counter-balance to PM Yulia Tymoshenko.
However, it turned out later such assumptions are premature because Mrs. Bohatyryova’s appointment was not welcome by the Party of Regions.
Without the support of own party it will be problematic to oppose the BYuT leader. The author thinks that them main goal of this appointment is different. This is a tactical goal and it has been achieved.
It is interesting whether or not President Yushchenko expected such a negative reaction of the Party of Regions leader on Mrs. Bohatyryova.
It looks like he expected it. He issued his second decree of inclusion Mrs. Bohatyryova to the NSCD Council when Viktor Yanukovych was publicly condemning her decision to accept this job offer.
It is indicative that neither Yushchenko nor Bohatyryova agreed their actions with the Party of Regions leader. The President saw no need in prior talks with Yanukovych although the Party of Regions members made a clear hint that Yushchenko ought to.
It was the first public conflict in the Party of regions. Mr. Yanukovych turned out a loser here which decreased his popularity.
It became obvious that having a powerful support in the party it is possible to completely ignore Mr. Yanukovych and his threats and play own game. Moreover, threats to exclude Mrs. Bohatyryova from the party prove Mr. Yanukovych’s weakness.
It is very difficult and dangerous to implement these threats because the conflict will have a new phase and the split will become a reality for the Party of Regions. That is why such threats look very improvident.
On the other hand, irritation of Mr. Yanukovych with Mrs. Bohatyryova and his attempts to make her refuse the office are quite understood. But traditional ways of solving this problem proved ineffective.
After appointment to the post of the NSDC Secretary Rayisa Bohatyryova influence will skyrocket. She will be the only member of the party who will participate in the decision-making on the highest level.
This will inevitably increase the number of those who will choose to make friends with the new NSDC Secretary both in the party circles and from outside the Party of Regions. Moreover, Mr. Yanukovych reaction to this appointment in fact relieves Rayisa Bohatyryova from any obligations to the Party of Regions leader.
Of course, it is not a split in the party but the process of decentralization of power has already begun.
Most of the analysts say that this appointment is continuation of the spring agreement between Viktor Yushchenko and Rynat Akhmetov as to the early parliamentary election. Besides, it is possible that Rynat Akhmetov stakes on President Yushchenko at the coming presidential election.
It is obvious that Viktor Yanukovych’s hunger for power in the office of the PM scared off both his rivals, allies and sponsors of the Party of Regions.
National oligarchs refused to bow to the Tsar putting their business in jeopardy and risking to lose his protection.
So, suspension of Viktor Yanukovych from power in the party looks quite logical. But this does not mean that part of the party’s sponsors will back Viktor Yushchenko at the presidential election in 2010.
An ideal candidate is the one who would secure not only protection but also further development of their business.
Conflict in the Party of Regions plays into hands of its political rivals and potential candidates for the president’s office. As known, it is Yulia Tymoshenko who is the second popular politician in Ukraine.
Speaking about protection of capital after Yulia Tymoshenko’s election the PM, the role of the new NSDC Secretary is obvious. This is protection of business and aversion of re-privatization.
Tymoshenko and Bohatyryova will have to come to an agreement to avoid scenario of 2005 when the government and the NSDC secretary became the victims of the so-called “corruption scandal.”
It will be possible to see if they can learn lessons of the past.
Mrs. Bohatyryova is not the president’s ally which will determine her policy. She will have to be rather cautious without the 100% support of Viktor Yushchenko. This fact is a good sign in future relations of Tymoshenko and Bohatyryova.
Besides, Mrs. Bohatyryova is a liberal politician rather tending to compromise than to open confrontation.
Taking into account the above-mentioned circumstances, one can rather expect escalation of tension in relations between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko than between Tymoshenko and Bohatyryova.
Besides, the President has recently stated that he wants to participate in the government’s session at least once a week.
All governmental decrees are signed at such session. But if the president regularly participates in the government’s session what is the role of the Prime Minister? Should she simply support presidential initiatives?
Yulia Tymoshenko’s readiness for a compromise will clear up many issues here. As known, she demonstrates fantastic flexibility especially in the personnel issues.
The president’s intention to run the government shows the level of trust between the two Orange partners, especially in the light of the coming presidential election.
After formation of a democratic coalition and restoration of Viktor Yanukovych’s presidential ambitions, the Party of Regions parliamentary faction should support amendments to the Constitution to restore former powers of the president.
All Mr. Yanukovych has to do is to preserve his high rating of popularity in the new opposition status.
Strange as it may seem, but Yulia Tymoshenko will gain nothing by supporting legislative initiatives of President Yushchenko at least during her premiership. On the other hand, the BYuT has already promised to vote for amendments to the Law on the Cabinet of Ministers and a number of other controversial bills.
It will be interesting to see if the partners will voluntarily restrict the PM’s powers.
Recent decisions of the president proved that his staff learned to find effective solutions to difficult problems.
It is time to increase the president’s rating of popularity to secure the second presidential term for him.
The State Budget 2008 contains initiatives to win support of the poor voters.
 |
Albina Trubenkova, Pro Europa, for UP